Quick answer (as of October 2026) Offer what recent closed sales in that subdivision support, adjusted for condition and for how long the home has been for sale. No percentage rule holds across Middle Tennessee. In October 2026, single-family supply ran from 4.39 months on the Williamson County side of Spring Hill to 7.76 months in Columbia in Maury County, so your room to negotiate depends on the town and the county.
Based on information from Realtracs® for the period October 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026.
Someone told you to offer 5% under asking. Someone else told you to go over. Neither one has seen the house.
It's harder when you're moving here from out of state, because you don't know yet what a fair price looks like on these streets. I've been selling real estate since 2013, I've been part of more than 500 transactions, and I hold the Certified Negotiation Expert designation. When a buyer asks me what to offer, I start with what homes in that subdivision actually closed for. The online estimate doesn't get a vote.
How much should you offer on a house?
Offer the price that closed sales in that subdivision support, after you adjust for condition and time on the market. Here's the order I work it in.
- Confirm the county. Spring Hill sits in both Williamson and Maury counties, and ZIP 37174 crosses the line. In October 2026 the single-family median was $718,000 on the Williamson side and $477,500 on the Maury side, so a comp from the wrong side can throw your number off badly. Here's more on how the two sides differ.
- Pull closed sales from the same subdivision. Fannie Mae's appraisal guide says sale activity inside the neighborhood is the best indicator of value, and it expects sales from the last 12 months. Match size, age, lot and condition as closely as you can. If nothing close has sold, widen the search and adjust for location.
- Adjust for what's different. A new roof, a dated kitchen and a busier road all belong in the number. Get a rough repair estimate before you write the offer.
- Read this listing's history. Look at how long it's been for sale, whether the price has been cut and whether it's gone under contract and come back.
- Set your top number, and leave it alone once you're excited.
Automated values miss condition, lot and subdivision, which is why pricing off an online estimate is on my list of what not to do.
How much room do buyers have in Middle Tennessee right now?
More than a year ago, and how much depends on the town. Single-family supply rose in all five areas below. The common rule of thumb calls about six months balanced, and only Columbia is past it.
| Single-family homes, Oct 2025 / Oct 2026 | List to contract, average days | Days on market, closed sales | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin, Williamson County | 71 / 87 | 35 / 38 | 3.66 / 5.48 |
| Thompson's Station, Williamson County | Not shown / 78 | 25 / 38 | 4.0 / 5.46 |
| Spring Hill, Williamson County side | 74 / 56 | 35 / 40 | 2.92 / 4.39 |
| Spring Hill, Maury County side | 60 / 52 | 36 / 35 | 4.38 / 5.85 |
| Columbia, Maury County | 60 / 54 | 33 / 46 | 6.25 / 7.76 |
Based on information from Realtracs® for the period October 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026. Figures go by mailing address, which can run past city limits. Thompson's Station's October 2025 list-to-contract figure is left out as an outlier. These numbers were pulled November 1, 2026, the first morning after month end. Late October closings can still be entered, so read months of supply as a high-side figure.
List to contract is the number I plan around, because days on market can reset when a listing is withdrawn and relisted.
Sixty days means different things in different towns. A Franklin single-family home 60 days in is still ahead of the 87-day average. On the Maury side of Spring Hill, it's past the 52-day average. A rule like "offer less after 30 days" can't handle that.
For the full month, see my Franklin, Thompson's Station and Spring Hill market pages and my Columbia guide.
How far are asking prices from sale prices?
In October 2026, the average active single-family listing was asking 5% to 39% more than the average closed sale, depending on the area. You can't take that gap off a list price as a discount, because active listings and closed sales are different groups of homes.
| Single-family homes | Average asking, Oct 2026 | Average closed, Oct 2026 | Asking above closed, Oct 2026 | Same gap, Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franklin, Williamson County | $2,047,674 | $1,536,972 | 33% | 59% |
| Thompson's Station, Williamson County | $1,733,020 | $1,433,856 | 21% | 41% |
| Spring Hill, Williamson County side | $771,093 | $734,447 | 5% | 23% |
| Spring Hill, Maury County side | $759,769 | $546,828 | 39% | 28% |
| Columbia, Maury County | $650,095 | $478,418 | 36% | 30% |
Based on information from Realtracs® for the period October 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026. Percentages are my math from the averages.
One month of averages moves with whichever homes happened to close. Franklin's closed average jumped because of the homes in the mix, so don't read its smaller gap as sellers coming down. Thompson's Station's $1,433,856 average sits far above its $883,638 median, because high-end sales pull an average up.
The Spring Hill rows show why I state the county first. On the Maury side, the average asking price was within about $11,000 of the Williamson side, and the average closed price was about $188,000 lower.
These reports don't give a sale-to-list ratio, so I won't hand you a town-wide percentage. You can get the real one for a subdivision from its closed sales.
How do you work out sale-to-list for a subdivision?
Divide each home's sold price by its final list price, then do it again with its original list price. The second number catches price cuts the first one hides. These three homes are made up to show the math.
| Example home | Original list | Final list | Sold | Sold vs. final list | Sold vs. original list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | $625,000 | $600,000 | $588,000 | 98.0% | 94.1% |
| B | $575,000 | $575,000 | $575,000 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| C | $650,000 | $620,000 | $601,400 | 97.0% | 92.5% |
Those three average 98.3% of final list price and 95.5% of original list price, so a seller and a buyer can quote different numbers from the same sales.
Use the ratio as a check on the comps. If this listing is priced where the closed sales sit, the ratio shows how much room sellers in that subdivision have given. If it's priced above them, start from the closed sales.
Send me the address and I'll run this from the real closed sales in that subdivision before you write a number. DM, text or call 615-392-1186.
When should you offer below, at or above asking?
Offer below asking when closed sales sit under the list price, near asking when they match it, and above it only when they support more.
| What you're seeing | Where I'd start | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| Closed sales sit under the list price, and the home has passed its area's average days or had a price cut | Below asking, at what the closed sales support | The seller can say no, so send the comps with the offer |
| Closed sales match the list price and the listing is fresh | At or close to asking | Your terms can matter as much as a small price gap |
| Closed sales support more than the list price, or there are competing offers | At or above asking, up to your top number | A low appraisal |
How do you set your top number?
Set it from your monthly payment and your cash before you write the offer. Build the budget around the full payment, and my affordability guide shows the math. Then count closing costs on top of your down payment.
Now check it against the appraisal. On a Fannie Mae loan, the property value used for your loan is the lower of the sales price or the appraised value. If you offer above the appraisal, the difference usually comes from your cash, a renegotiated price or whatever your contract allows. Decide how much of that gap you could cover before you sign. Other loan types have their own rules, so ask your lender.
How do you make an offer on a house in Tennessee?
Your agent writes the offer as a purchase agreement, you sign it, and it goes to the seller's agent with a deadline to respond. Tennessee law generally requires a contract to sell land to be in writing and signed, so a verbal yes doesn't lock up the house.
- Have your pre-approval letter in hand.
- Sign your buyer agreement. Since 2024, you'll generally sign one before an agent shows you a house. Here's how that works in Tennessee.
- Choose your price and terms: earnest money, inspection period, loan dates, closing date and any credit you're asking for. What happens to your earnest money if the deal falls apart depends on your contract.
- Send it with the comps that support your number.
- The seller accepts, counters or declines. If they counter, you can accept, counter back or walk away.
A flexible closing date can help a seller more than a few thousand dollars, and a credit can do the work of a price cut, within the limits your loan sets.
Skip the personal letter to the seller. NAR warns that buyer love letters can put sellers at risk under fair housing laws, and photos add to it. Contract questions on your own deal belong with a Tennessee real estate attorney.
Frequently asked questions
How much less than the asking price should I offer?
There's no set percentage. Work out what closed sales in that subdivision support for this home, and compare that with the asking price. The difference is where your offer starts.
Is 10% below asking a lowball offer?
It depends on the comps. If closed sales in that subdivision support a price 10% under asking, you're making a fair offer with evidence behind it. If they don't, the seller will likely read it as a lowball.
Should I offer the full asking price?
Offer full price when the closed sales support it. If they come in under the list price, a full-price offer means you're paying more than the market has been paying.
Can I offer more than the asking price?
Yes, when closed sales or competing offers support it. Keep the price inside what you could cover in cash if the appraisal comes in low, because on a Fannie Mae loan the lender uses the lower of the sales price or the appraised value.
How much should I offer on a house that needs work?
Get repair estimates before you write the offer, then subtract them from what closed sales support for a move-in ready version of the same house. If you want a repair credit instead, ask your lender first, because loan rules can limit credits.
Looking at a house right now?
Send me the address. I'll confirm the county, pull the closed sales in that subdivision and walk you through the number before you sign anything. DM, text or call 615-392-1186.
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